Laws of soccer betting

1. How to win money on any soccer league

The first law of soccer betting is to know your league. Or more to the point know how many goals are usually scored. This is an important analysis not only because it shows the trend of who might beat whom, but more importantly opens the door o nthe far more mathematically meaningful wagers of getting the correct scores.

Take last season’s Premier League for example:

The top six clubs down to Aston Villa all had goal differences of 20 plus. United were run away winners with plus 58, but Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea were within parity of just four goals. Useful information that.

The botom nine had negative goal differrences. Bottom club Derby was a massive minus 69, so they shipped more negative eresults than Manchester united scored at the top. There were some curiosities in here mostly with Newcastle finishing 11th but with minus 20 (thanks KK) and Birmingham, whose surprise demotion is reflected in a goal difference of minus 16, which if it had only been about goal difference should have had them finish 13th.

Between the top and the bottom five teams finished with more or less equal goalf differences.

From which we can learn one valuable lesson. The top six teams scored their goals against the bottom sides. The teams in the middle scrapped it out and ended with roughly par goals. Statistically therefore the high scoring games were top v bottom and the draws were eeked out in mid table.

Chelsea lost the title by drawing seven games at home. Liverpool lost out by not winning away.

Bet on the first Saturday of the new season soccer here

Compare that to the French Ligue1

The top seven teams had positive goal advanatages but scored far fewer goals. Just on a goals basis Lyon who were champions scored plus 37 which would have put them fifth in England.

The bottom six were in negative equity but nowhere near as badly as in England, leaving a middle rump of seven teams with rough parity when one allows for the fact that bottom clubs Metz and Strasbourgh shipped 57 goals between them. Bit the six middling placed clubs all had between five and seven draws away from home.

But look at the number of draws from the top - out of 38 games, seven, nine, 11, 15, 10, 10, 18, 16, 18, 16. It is not quite 50% but the figures show clearly this is a league to bet on old style - go for the draws. In the Premier League the percentage is closer to an average 25%.

So we conclude that France is a lower scoring league all round, much more likely to yield a winning result on 1-0. We conclude there will be a higher percentage of draws. And we conclude that the bottom clubs are vulnerable to not just losing, but losing big.

Ok, if we are going to seduce Lady Luck, then we need to have a strategy - a little wine, a little dinner, candlelight, all of which cost dosh, so we need to make some cash. Of course, the gorgeous diva may not after all, even after a bottle of voddie, come across, but you never know if you don’t try. And ity is the same with soccer betting. Just flying off with “Howdya fancy a night in the sack, doll” is not usually a prescription for success, even if it is what you mean.

So if we are going to win at soccer betting, we need to have a strategy and stick to it, massaging it. Of course I cannot guarantee that you will win millions but I can shed some hard thinking on thwe subject and mechanisms that may weigh the scales down on your side.

Without getting carried away, the chances of winning at soccer betting are much better than a slot machine, than the National Lottery, than the Circle Line not stopping at Camden Town this morning. We just need to take it slow and steady. Stake low, stake often, spread your odds, win big, win regular, not millions, but hundreds or thousands depending whether you want to play this game with £1, £10 or £100. Your choice.

I bet at www.BetClick.com because it is easy, fast, new and I am not interested in being a saddo slumping all over the web lookign for a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of a better odds. My time is more important. I am not that compulsive. In fact being a lazy gambler is a virtue.

The new soccer season is upon us and already the friendly matches are flying through the diary. Over the summer we have been cogitating a new kind of bet. It is a very low stake, but very high return. Statistically the odds are a lot better than the National Lottery - well what is not? Depending how you pitch it, the odds in reality are only 10-1 up to 20/1 and with a little bit of basic football knowledge, they are possibly better than that.

The idea is to bet on the correct scores of a football match. Not just once. But two as doubles.

Take a look at this week’s matches and see how that configures.

If Arsenal and Liverpool were both to win 2-0 on Wednesday night £10 would pay out £990

By the same token Barcelona to win 2-0 against Fiorentina and Jose Mourninhos Inter Milan to win 2-0 at home against Seville £10 would pay out £680. These are far better odds than a slot machine for example.

Make that a triple with the same bet on Marseille at home to Toulouse on Saturday and the pay out potential is £4,420.

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Waving the flag - Rafa Benitez introduces Robbie Keane to Anfield

Goals win titles, but whether Robbie Keane is the missing part in the Rafa Benitez jigsaw puzzle remains to be proven. On paper Keane might score 20 goals a season, albeit so might anyone else alongside Fernando Torres. But in fact the best he managed in six years at Spurs was 16 goals in a season. Keane is also a robust player not dissimilar to Dirk Kuyt who impressed for Holland in the the Uefa European Championships. If the on/off saga of Gareth Barry’s move from Aston Villa goes through, then the summer would have seen a significant change in the Benitez thinking, opting for proven pushy Premier League performers or little known younger players he can groom. Last week he also picked up the promising French talent David Ngog who may pop in a few goals too although he might be better employed as far as the Kop is concerned creating them.

Strangely goals were not Liverpool’s major issue last season. They had the same goal difference as Chelsea who finished 11 points clear. They only scored four less than Arsenal. Admittedly they were 19 goals short on Manchester United but that was because United were showboating while Liverpool were scrapping. They are still 7/1 this morning to win the premiership.

Liverpool open the season away to Sunderland where Roy Keane has also been shipping in some proven top flight experience in the shape of Bolton’s El-Hadji Douf, the Tottenham pair Teemu Tianio and Pascal Chimbonda with more to come. Liverpool are 3/4 to win at the Stadium of Light in the late kick off on August 16. It is games like these that Liverpool need to win to get into contention but historically in recent seasons they have been slow starters.

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Bet on Spurs

Darren Bent celebrates his hatrick against Norwich, and for good measure then banged in another from 10 yards

Has Juande Ramos discovered a new striking sensation or at least revived the potential of an old one. The £16.5 million Spurs shelled out on Darren Bent looked a tad overpriced but last night he banged in four goals in a 5-1 thumping of Norwich at Carrow Road. Roy Keane was apparently ready to take Bent to Sunderland along with four or five others which is ther sort of deal that could almost see the Stadium of Light becoming a feeder club for the north Londoners. But if Ramos does sell Dimitir Berbatof- who stayed on the bench last night - to Manchester United then he has been playing a long game with his strike force, which would see three front line strikers offloaded for the best part of £60 million. Perhaps as a Spaniard he fancies the strength of Bent up front to just tap in as he did last night for the fifth goal after an end to end passing move. Maybe he thinks centre forwards are overrated? His other purchases have seemed so canny in midfield and defence, that it would be disrepectful to presume that he has not got a master plan unfolding.

Bet on Spurs to win the Premier League. Great odds at 64/1.

Bet on Spurs to win at Middlesbrough on first day of season