There is a very easy way to get better odds when you are betting on a soccer team to win a league or a tournament. If you turn it into a double with the next game, which logically if you are right they have to win, then your margin goes up disproprtionatlky. Liverpool for example today are quoted as 14/1 to win the Champions League. So that would pay £140 for £10. But if you double it with a victory on Wednesday against Standard Liege suddenly the pay out leaps to £222. A note of caution, you may need to use two bookmakers to take the bets serperately.

The great man is lounging on a sofa in the Savoy lounge. He is wearing a gold waistcoat and looks propsoperous in the way of a Cuban cigar magnate. There is a gold ring on his third finger. The watch is Cartier. The suit is Lanvin. The drink is Chateau Lafite 1989.

“Betting for me is different,” he explains. “I am a rich man. The rules for rich men’s betting are different to those of other people. A rich man bets a lot on small odds. A poor man has to bet a lot on longer odds.”

How often do you bet?

“Not a lot in reality. I talk about it a lot. But a rich man has to be right three times out of four. So I am careful in my choices. I don’t like to lose, you see.

“I like the mathematics. I like to prove a system to myself before I put any money down. It is just like business really. You are always trying to minimise the risk and massage the upside.”

When did you start gambling?

“When I started winning. I am like a Deep Stack poker player. I bide my time and wait for the right cards. Two aces suits me fine. I don’t like walking back to Houston”

What do you bet on?

“Soccer for choice. That is my discipline. I am intererested in tennis too, more and more.”

Horses?

“I cannot say I like the horses. Too much history there. Too much intangible. With football there is no corruption or very little and very occassional and even then not really likely to interfere with my approach. With horses I never feel you can get that sound baseline.”

Does your wife approve of your gambling?

“She has six children. I pay the bills. She goes shopping. Why should she complain? It does not get in our way as a family. She would rather I am online for a few minutes with my football betting than on some dating site.”

Would you bet if you did not have the money?

“No. I set a budget. I stick to it. But that was a while ago. I start over again each season and tally up”

How much have you really made out of gambling?

“That is not a fair question. I work on a 60:40 ratio. But I can afford to put £10k on Manchester United to win because that is still £4,000 profit which is cute for a little attention to detail. But if I could not afford to wager that much I would be looking for accumulators and my particular interest of the moment which is a double on two teams to get the same scoreline, say 2-0. That pays big time, if you can get it right.”

Your tip for the weekend?

“Don’t bet. It is all too volatile and too unpredictable. I am keeping my money for the opening of the Premier League. Even then I may wait a couple of weeks to see who is playing well. But I have a good feeling about Chelsea under Luis Felipe Scolari. Last year under Avram Grant they were a nightmare because although they were unbeaten at home and theoretically a banker, they actually drew too many games.”

Get all the new season soccer odds here plus a £10 free bet for new members at http://www.betclick.com/sport/home.aspx

Worried man? Bet QPR?

Flavio Briatore, co chairman of Championship favourites QPR contemplates the betting

Bracewell’s betting laws - 3. betting on friendlies

The problem with betting on friendlies as this weekend’s action illustrated only too well is the vagaries are multiplied. An unfit Milan side were trounced by Chelsea 5-0. Arsene Wenger put out a youthful Arsenal against Juventus and kept his experienced players for Real Madrid. They played the usual Arsenal pretty football but could not score. The sight of the injured Eduardo in a suit rubbed salt in the wounds for Gooner’s admirers who wonder if he might have won them the Premier League last season. Four tap ins might have done.  I digress.

The laws of betting on friendly football matches are that the results are more volatile and not subject even to the usual constant that a manager will play his best team. Winnings can therefore be exponential because the element of surprise is magnified. It is not a safe bet. Except it is a safe bet where the bigger teams are playing and where we can see that they are close to the level of fitness that Premier League action requires.

A bet on Manchester United to win at Peterborough, Liverpool to win at Oslo, Arsenal to win at Huddersfield and Barcelona to beat Red Bull New York is tight odds but £10 pays £31.70, which at this time of the season looks like robbing the bank.

Get betting here

Bracewell’s soccer betting laws 2 - how much to bet?

Money is relative. If you have a £1,000,000 going spare then putting it on Manchester United to beat Portsmouth in the Community Shield at the resplendent new Wembley might seem like a surefire bet. You could trouser £600,000 which is good money in most people’s language. But if you pop £1 on it £1.60 seems a bit like slim pickings.

How much to bet is firstly about how much can you afford to play with? This is a decision best taken for the long term. Set a budget and stick to it. Apart from anything else it allows us to construct realistic strategies and analyse them. If you keep popping bets on here and there in the heat of the moment, then you may never know whether it was luck, judgement or chance. With a budget we can mix up hisk high odds bets against bankers at low risk and manage our portfolio just like they are stocks and shares.

Poker players talk about have a stash which they can build up over a period of months for big games. That makes sense, except in soccer betting there is no need to keep doubling up the ante. You are probably not going to win millions unless you bet millions. Be realistic.

Let us set a budget of £10 a week, £100 if you could afford it and if you are flush then £1000. So we are all talking the same percentages. Let us work to turn that £10/£100/£1000 firstly into £25/£250/£2500. It may sound modestly ambitious, but even if we hit the big odds pay days, let’s treat them like they are as sunny days in February

A tip for the weekend - a treble on Arsenal, Milan and Real Madrid all to win is 7.20, so £10 = £72.

Open an account at BetClick and as a new member your first £10 bet is free - if it does not come off, you don’t lose anything. Give it a try, you could be holding folding Sunday night

Laws of soccer betting

1. How to win money on any soccer league

The first law of soccer betting is to know your league. Or more to the point know how many goals are usually scored. This is an important analysis not only because it shows the trend of who might beat whom, but more importantly opens the door o nthe far more mathematically meaningful wagers of getting the correct scores.

Take last season’s Premier League for example:

The top six clubs down to Aston Villa all had goal differences of 20 plus. United were run away winners with plus 58, but Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea were within parity of just four goals. Useful information that.

The botom nine had negative goal differrences. Bottom club Derby was a massive minus 69, so they shipped more negative eresults than Manchester united scored at the top. There were some curiosities in here mostly with Newcastle finishing 11th but with minus 20 (thanks KK) and Birmingham, whose surprise demotion is reflected in a goal difference of minus 16, which if it had only been about goal difference should have had them finish 13th.

Between the top and the bottom five teams finished with more or less equal goalf differences.

From which we can learn one valuable lesson. The top six teams scored their goals against the bottom sides. The teams in the middle scrapped it out and ended with roughly par goals. Statistically therefore the high scoring games were top v bottom and the draws were eeked out in mid table.

Chelsea lost the title by drawing seven games at home. Liverpool lost out by not winning away.

Bet on the first Saturday of the new season soccer here

Compare that to the French Ligue1

The top seven teams had positive goal advanatages but scored far fewer goals. Just on a goals basis Lyon who were champions scored plus 37 which would have put them fifth in England.

The bottom six were in negative equity but nowhere near as badly as in England, leaving a middle rump of seven teams with rough parity when one allows for the fact that bottom clubs Metz and Strasbourgh shipped 57 goals between them. Bit the six middling placed clubs all had between five and seven draws away from home.

But look at the number of draws from the top - out of 38 games, seven, nine, 11, 15, 10, 10, 18, 16, 18, 16. It is not quite 50% but the figures show clearly this is a league to bet on old style - go for the draws. In the Premier League the percentage is closer to an average 25%.

So we conclude that France is a lower scoring league all round, much more likely to yield a winning result on 1-0. We conclude there will be a higher percentage of draws. And we conclude that the bottom clubs are vulnerable to not just losing, but losing big.