Seven games in does not make a season, but from a betting point of view there is starting to be some form. Manchester United and Fulham have only played six games, so there is even less evidence in their cases, although both look likely to come good in October.

The big betting money has been following the bigger scores. Liverpool’s last gasp win at Manchester City 3-2 was 24/1. Unfancied Bolton’s 3-1 win at West Ham was 49/1. The newly promotoed clubs have done well but have not been scoring and only Stoke’s 0-0 at Liverpool stands out as a mark of their resilience.

Most teams have enough about them to suggest that the bigger teams may not have it all their own way, which points to goals scored. Or at least Chelsea and Manchester United may not have it all their own way. For the rest it looks like a dog fight. Joe Kinnear could in fact be Newcastle need. A bit of the crazy gang approach from the old Wimbledon days and a few **** was enough to stifle Everton. Tottenham must find some form. Hull must be halfway to survival so that suggests another team to go down, of which, as it painful as it may be to show no faith in a young English manager, Blackburn under Paul Ince look possible candidates. They are away to Bolton next time around which will be a good test of their Premier League viability.

Fulham entertain Sunderland which will also be a six pointer one way or the other. Fulham have been playing the football and losing. Sunderland have been stealing results. Stytle meets substance.

In Madrid Robinho’s sale will be met by whistles not for the players of the coach but the club president Ramon Calderon. He leaves a gap on the left side of the team that Arjen Robben will be expected to fill but as both Chelsea and the Holland national team Robben is injured too often to be counted on to sign for his supper each week. It was Robinho who supplied the exctra magic that brought enough 1-0 wins to ensure the Liga title. What the Madridistas expected was striker because both Ruud Van Nistelroy and Raul are the wrong side of 30. What they got was Van der Vaart in midfield.

Calderon seems to have offended everyone. By courting Ronaldo and using Robinho as a make-weight he engineered the outcome he got without getting his star buy. By selling to Manchester City, he has offended Chelsea.

As for Robinho, it will be fascinating to see if he can integrate into the Premier League. For a Brazilian unhappy in Madrid, hopefully his agents will have pointed out that where Manchester has great clubs it is also miserable, cold and rainy and not just in November. Will he cope with Carling Cup nights at Barnsley and Bolton, although significantly he has said that the teaming up with fellow Brazilians Jo and Elano was a deciding factor. Although was it not Elano who went missing after the clocks went back last October?

Bet Chelsea

Roman Abromovich shows girlfriend Daria Zhokova how to spend the roubles on a few ex Portugese baubles

Bet Chelsea

If training ground action is anything to go by then Big Phil Scolari is about to unleash a real shock on Sunday against Portsmouth…John Terry in goal. That is where he is playing at Stamford Bridge this morning.

Laws of soccer betting

1. How to win money on any soccer league

The first law of soccer betting is to know your league. Or more to the point know how many goals are usually scored. This is an important analysis not only because it shows the trend of who might beat whom, but more importantly opens the door o nthe far more mathematically meaningful wagers of getting the correct scores.

Take last season’s Premier League for example:

The top six clubs down to Aston Villa all had goal differences of 20 plus. United were run away winners with plus 58, but Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea were within parity of just four goals. Useful information that.

The botom nine had negative goal differrences. Bottom club Derby was a massive minus 69, so they shipped more negative eresults than Manchester united scored at the top. There were some curiosities in here mostly with Newcastle finishing 11th but with minus 20 (thanks KK) and Birmingham, whose surprise demotion is reflected in a goal difference of minus 16, which if it had only been about goal difference should have had them finish 13th.

Between the top and the bottom five teams finished with more or less equal goalf differences.

From which we can learn one valuable lesson. The top six teams scored their goals against the bottom sides. The teams in the middle scrapped it out and ended with roughly par goals. Statistically therefore the high scoring games were top v bottom and the draws were eeked out in mid table.

Chelsea lost the title by drawing seven games at home. Liverpool lost out by not winning away.

Bet on the first Saturday of the new season soccer here

Compare that to the French Ligue1

The top seven teams had positive goal advanatages but scored far fewer goals. Just on a goals basis Lyon who were champions scored plus 37 which would have put them fifth in England.

The bottom six were in negative equity but nowhere near as badly as in England, leaving a middle rump of seven teams with rough parity when one allows for the fact that bottom clubs Metz and Strasbourgh shipped 57 goals between them. Bit the six middling placed clubs all had between five and seven draws away from home.

But look at the number of draws from the top - out of 38 games, seven, nine, 11, 15, 10, 10, 18, 16, 18, 16. It is not quite 50% but the figures show clearly this is a league to bet on old style - go for the draws. In the Premier League the percentage is closer to an average 25%.

So we conclude that France is a lower scoring league all round, much more likely to yield a winning result on 1-0. We conclude there will be a higher percentage of draws. And we conclude that the bottom clubs are vulnerable to not just losing, but losing big.

Waving the flag - Rafa Benitez introduces Robbie Keane to Anfield

Goals win titles, but whether Robbie Keane is the missing part in the Rafa Benitez jigsaw puzzle remains to be proven. On paper Keane might score 20 goals a season, albeit so might anyone else alongside Fernando Torres. But in fact the best he managed in six years at Spurs was 16 goals in a season. Keane is also a robust player not dissimilar to Dirk Kuyt who impressed for Holland in the the Uefa European Championships. If the on/off saga of Gareth Barry’s move from Aston Villa goes through, then the summer would have seen a significant change in the Benitez thinking, opting for proven pushy Premier League performers or little known younger players he can groom. Last week he also picked up the promising French talent David Ngog who may pop in a few goals too although he might be better employed as far as the Kop is concerned creating them.

Strangely goals were not Liverpool’s major issue last season. They had the same goal difference as Chelsea who finished 11 points clear. They only scored four less than Arsenal. Admittedly they were 19 goals short on Manchester United but that was because United were showboating while Liverpool were scrapping. They are still 7/1 this morning to win the premiership.

Liverpool open the season away to Sunderland where Roy Keane has also been shipping in some proven top flight experience in the shape of Bolton’s El-Hadji Douf, the Tottenham pair Teemu Tianio and Pascal Chimbonda with more to come. Liverpool are 3/4 to win at the Stadium of Light in the late kick off on August 16. It is games like these that Liverpool need to win to get into contention but historically in recent seasons they have been slow starters.

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Stamford Bridge. Didier Droga looks set to stay at Chelsea on a £130,000 a week after Felipe Scolari insisted the big Ivorian striker had to stay at the club for the rest of his season. The deal for 30 year old Drogba is for four years, so in 2012 Chelsea could be the pensioners again. But as the Sun put it a Drog is for Life.

Bet on Chelsea to win Premiership

Couldn’t resist this one from Felipe Scolari’s entertaining first press conference at Chelsea, where if nothing else it looks like it is going to be a fun ride for the next few months for all onlookers. Probably he was just saying two more questions…na, carse he wazzzn’t

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