This could be a defining moment in the Premier League this weekend. Arsenal host Aston Villa and where the kids were in fine form in the week and last week’s epically entertaining game against Manchester United showed the best of them. But Villa are capable and capable of scoring goals, so they could get a surprise. Equally Bolton won at Hull last week - mainly thanks to their goalkeeper admittedly -  but and with  Jussi Jaaskelainen still there Liverpool have to find a way past. Manchester United’s vaunted front men were firing blanks mostly against QPR and Stoke may be better opposition which sort of says it is another stutter or a slaughter. The only one of the top four sides that look like a banker are Chelsea at West Brom. Have a triple on Liverpool and Arsenal to lose and United to draw and £1 pays £336. Bet the other way on the top four all to win and £1 pays £3.50. Get a free £10 bet here

Seven games in does not make a season, but from a betting point of view there is starting to be some form. Manchester United and Fulham have only played six games, so there is even less evidence in their cases, although both look likely to come good in October.

The big betting money has been following the bigger scores. Liverpool’s last gasp win at Manchester City 3-2 was 24/1. Unfancied Bolton’s 3-1 win at West Ham was 49/1. The newly promotoed clubs have done well but have not been scoring and only Stoke’s 0-0 at Liverpool stands out as a mark of their resilience.

Most teams have enough about them to suggest that the bigger teams may not have it all their own way, which points to goals scored. Or at least Chelsea and Manchester United may not have it all their own way. For the rest it looks like a dog fight. Joe Kinnear could in fact be Newcastle need. A bit of the crazy gang approach from the old Wimbledon days and a few **** was enough to stifle Everton. Tottenham must find some form. Hull must be halfway to survival so that suggests another team to go down, of which, as it painful as it may be to show no faith in a young English manager, Blackburn under Paul Ince look possible candidates. They are away to Bolton next time around which will be a good test of their Premier League viability.

Fulham entertain Sunderland which will also be a six pointer one way or the other. Fulham have been playing the football and losing. Sunderland have been stealing results. Stytle meets substance.

For all hype and punditry, the early proof of the Premier League 2008/9 is that money does not buy success. It can. But it doesn’t look like it for the clubs that spend big. Or for clubs that want or need instant success, one player or more is not necessarily the panacea.  Spurs and Nerwcastle fans must be wondering where it all went so badly wrong.

Tottenham are 749/1 to win the title which is rather more than a long shot and Juande Ramos has dismantled Martin Jol’s side and fielding a bunch of strangers. To add insult Jol has taken Hamburg to the top of the Bundesliga in less time than Ramos has taken to undo his good work. Rumours now link ex Chelsea boss Avram Grant to White Hart Lane? The board’s endorsement of the manager has been made public. 

Mike Ashley has money but seemingly refused  Kevin Keegan’s demands to spend big. In fact he has not  spent very much at all and that could be even worse. A new owner, bringing Keegan back even with money for a relegation dog fight looks less likely at present than a steep fast descent through the Championship to League One, a la Leeds.  In that light Roy Kinnear may not be such a bad choice for the months ahead…

Robinho could not make the difference yet for Manchester City against Liverpool on Sunday, and it is pretty unclear if Rafa Benitez’s summer spending will take Liverpool above Chelsea or Manchester United. Even at Stamford Bridge on Sunday it was interesting how far the pundits got it wrong…Villa to win 2-0 was a 40/1 shot and much touted about on radio and TV, Chelsea were a predictable boring 5/1 for the same score. But  Villa in fact have spent heavily this summer and transparently it has not made enough of a difference. Chelsea on the other hand even with more than half a team out with injury, fielded what many pre-the game had down as a second string side but preceeded to produce another masterclass in modern football. The lesson there is to start with a good manager, or preferably a great one. Or even better with four in succession- Claudio Ranieri, Jose Mourinho, maybe Avram Grant if only because the obituary on his legacy was that he didn’t mess things up, and Felipe Scolari.

Sir Alex Ferguson has also demonstrated over the years the art of buying important players and taking time to integrate them. It might have been overlooked that he has in fact spent £60million on Dimitiar Berbatov and confirming the Carlos Tevez deal this summer. Cristiano Ronaldo was a steal at £13m. Wayne Rooney was £28million. No wonder the forwards looked in good form against Blackburn. His purchases though are additions to the squad to embellish the overall play. They are not wholesale overhauls. That United forward line has been groomed through since the decision to sell Ruud Van Nistelroy in 2006.

Great teams are built on time and foresight. Arsenal are still in contention through  an investment in youth; exravagent sums spent on teenagers whom they can develop and sell on. Arsene Wenger seems to believe the brio of youth is a necessary part of successful chemistry. The great Ajax side of 1994-96 was built on that premise too.

A rare peek at a £19 million Premier League striker currently training at Teresopolis before Brazil’s games against Chile and Bolivia in a World Cup 2010 qualifying soccer match next week. You can have a bet on it here. This is the other Brazilian that Manchester City bought, although he has been used sparingly as a sub at the Olympics and City have generously alloweed him to to be playing on September 10 which is just five days before Chelsea slip into Eastlands, so he may be a a shade jet lagged. La Paz is only a 14 hour flight to London plus four hours check in at Heathrow…

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Alan Curbishley was once touted as a potential England national manager. Today he is touting his P45. The club’s website is still carrying a rather horrible example of corporate speak: “West Ham are looking to a bright future after a summer of consolidation and a positive start to the new season…the club is fully comitted to a high qulaity first team squad based on solid financial foundations that will challenge at the top of the Premier League…” Funnily enough West Ham are fifth as the infant table stands, and but for a sending off might have got more than a 3-0 drubbing at Eastlands by a drab Manchester City. This blog has written before now the malaise in this case has nothing to do with results. The “high quality” first team squad is full of notable miscreants like Lee Bowyer and Craig Bellamy. It would be entertaining if reserve keeper James Walker’s programme notes which according to the club web site “spills the beans on what happens in the dressing room” revealed more about the post Blackburn match altercation between Australian skipper Lucas Niell, Mathew Upson and Curbishley where the team told the manager they had saved his job for him. Currently West Ham look like a dog without a bone. They are 8/1 to be relegated which is tempting.

In Madrid Robinho’s sale will be met by whistles not for the players of the coach but the club president Ramon Calderon. He leaves a gap on the left side of the team that Arjen Robben will be expected to fill but as both Chelsea and the Holland national team Robben is injured too often to be counted on to sign for his supper each week. It was Robinho who supplied the exctra magic that brought enough 1-0 wins to ensure the Liga title. What the Madridistas expected was striker because both Ruud Van Nistelroy and Raul are the wrong side of 30. What they got was Van der Vaart in midfield.

Calderon seems to have offended everyone. By courting Ronaldo and using Robinho as a make-weight he engineered the outcome he got without getting his star buy. By selling to Manchester City, he has offended Chelsea.

As for Robinho, it will be fascinating to see if he can integrate into the Premier League. For a Brazilian unhappy in Madrid, hopefully his agents will have pointed out that where Manchester has great clubs it is also miserable, cold and rainy and not just in November. Will he cope with Carling Cup nights at Barnsley and Bolton, although significantly he has said that the teaming up with fellow Brazilians Jo and Elano was a deciding factor. Although was it not Elano who went missing after the clocks went back last October?

Saturday sees some intereesting games looming. Bolton host West Bromwich Albion, both of whom lost in the Carling Cup in the week and will be smarting and also looking for points. There are not many points in the bag as yet for Everton, boosted by the arrival of Louis Saha now and poor Portsmouth who had the nightmare start away to Chelsea, home to Manchester United.

Hull will test Wigan and vice versa. Stoke are long odds to get anything from Middlesbrough. West Ham and Blackburn could find the cracks either way, while Kevin Keagan may find life a bit tougher at Highbury against an Arsenal side who looked elegant in the week.

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Liverpool have not exactly come to life as yet, traditionally slow starters, they have looked sluggish and where Gareth Barry might help the midfield, it is the left side that is perceived to be the problem, plus along with internationals this week there will be little time on the training ground to work things out. And Liverpool have an important and potentially tricky game in the Champions League coming up and Benitez has been known to get distratced in his team selection. Middlesbrough on the other hand were unfancied at the start but a victory over Spurs will have done them a power of good, they have fewer players away on international duty and a good record against the Big Four. Draw. All the Premier League betting here

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Fernando Torres skips past Standard Liege’s Mohamed Sarr but there were few signs last night that Rafa Benitez’s re-arranged side would be knocking at the door of the Premier League title or the later stages of the Champions League. There are good odds on Sunderland grabbing some points off them in the late fixture on Saturday too which suddenly look attractive. The £20 million Robbie Keane was substituted. Steven Gerrard was not fit enough for the 90 minutes although he added some fizz when he came on. Pepe Rainer saved a penalty and the Belgians made most of the running. Benitez’s seemingly thwarted desire to bring in Gareth Barry from Aston Villa suddenly seemed an inspired thought because this was a team without inspiration lobbing long balls up to Torres. As the TV commentary said: where was Peter Crouch? Maybe Benitez is on borrowed time, saved over the years by his luck and the sublime spirt of Gerrard. On last night’s display Tottenham could well fancy their chances of finishing above them in the league. Unlike Sir Alex Ferguson Benitez’s spending seems increasingly to be a churn without yielding real quality. A baffling selection of unknowns, promising kids who might develop better at another club where they could get first team football and only Torres as his real star buy. Torres is favourite to be top goalscorer thisyear, but who is going to provide the service?

Worried man? Bet QPR?

Flavio Briatore, co chairman of Championship favourites QPR contemplates the betting

Bracewell’s betting laws - 3. betting on friendlies

The problem with betting on friendlies as this weekend’s action illustrated only too well is the vagaries are multiplied. An unfit Milan side were trounced by Chelsea 5-0. Arsene Wenger put out a youthful Arsenal against Juventus and kept his experienced players for Real Madrid. They played the usual Arsenal pretty football but could not score. The sight of the injured Eduardo in a suit rubbed salt in the wounds for Gooner’s admirers who wonder if he might have won them the Premier League last season. Four tap ins might have done.  I digress.

The laws of betting on friendly football matches are that the results are more volatile and not subject even to the usual constant that a manager will play his best team. Winnings can therefore be exponential because the element of surprise is magnified. It is not a safe bet. Except it is a safe bet where the bigger teams are playing and where we can see that they are close to the level of fitness that Premier League action requires.

A bet on Manchester United to win at Peterborough, Liverpool to win at Oslo, Arsenal to win at Huddersfield and Barcelona to beat Red Bull New York is tight odds but £10 pays £31.70, which at this time of the season looks like robbing the bank.

Laws of soccer betting

1. How to win money on any soccer league

The first law of soccer betting is to know your league. Or more to the point know how many goals are usually scored. This is an important analysis not only because it shows the trend of who might beat whom, but more importantly opens the door o nthe far more mathematically meaningful wagers of getting the correct scores.

Take last season’s Premier League for example:

The top six clubs down to Aston Villa all had goal differences of 20 plus. United were run away winners with plus 58, but Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea were within parity of just four goals. Useful information that.

The botom nine had negative goal differrences. Bottom club Derby was a massive minus 69, so they shipped more negative eresults than Manchester united scored at the top. There were some curiosities in here mostly with Newcastle finishing 11th but with minus 20 (thanks KK) and Birmingham, whose surprise demotion is reflected in a goal difference of minus 16, which if it had only been about goal difference should have had them finish 13th.

Between the top and the bottom five teams finished with more or less equal goalf differences.

From which we can learn one valuable lesson. The top six teams scored their goals against the bottom sides. The teams in the middle scrapped it out and ended with roughly par goals. Statistically therefore the high scoring games were top v bottom and the draws were eeked out in mid table.

Chelsea lost the title by drawing seven games at home. Liverpool lost out by not winning away.

Bet on the first Saturday of the new season soccer here

Compare that to the French Ligue1

The top seven teams had positive goal advanatages but scored far fewer goals. Just on a goals basis Lyon who were champions scored plus 37 which would have put them fifth in England.

The bottom six were in negative equity but nowhere near as badly as in England, leaving a middle rump of seven teams with rough parity when one allows for the fact that bottom clubs Metz and Strasbourgh shipped 57 goals between them. Bit the six middling placed clubs all had between five and seven draws away from home.

But look at the number of draws from the top - out of 38 games, seven, nine, 11, 15, 10, 10, 18, 16, 18, 16. It is not quite 50% but the figures show clearly this is a league to bet on old style - go for the draws. In the Premier League the percentage is closer to an average 25%.

So we conclude that France is a lower scoring league all round, much more likely to yield a winning result on 1-0. We conclude there will be a higher percentage of draws. And we conclude that the bottom clubs are vulnerable to not just losing, but losing big.

Waving the flag - Rafa Benitez introduces Robbie Keane to Anfield

Goals win titles, but whether Robbie Keane is the missing part in the Rafa Benitez jigsaw puzzle remains to be proven. On paper Keane might score 20 goals a season, albeit so might anyone else alongside Fernando Torres. But in fact the best he managed in six years at Spurs was 16 goals in a season. Keane is also a robust player not dissimilar to Dirk Kuyt who impressed for Holland in the the Uefa European Championships. If the on/off saga of Gareth Barry’s move from Aston Villa goes through, then the summer would have seen a significant change in the Benitez thinking, opting for proven pushy Premier League performers or little known younger players he can groom. Last week he also picked up the promising French talent David Ngog who may pop in a few goals too although he might be better employed as far as the Kop is concerned creating them.

Strangely goals were not Liverpool’s major issue last season. They had the same goal difference as Chelsea who finished 11 points clear. They only scored four less than Arsenal. Admittedly they were 19 goals short on Manchester United but that was because United were showboating while Liverpool were scrapping. They are still 7/1 this morning to win the premiership.

Liverpool open the season away to Sunderland where Roy Keane has also been shipping in some proven top flight experience in the shape of Bolton’s El-Hadji Douf, the Tottenham pair Teemu Tianio and Pascal Chimbonda with more to come. Liverpool are 3/4 to win at the Stadium of Light in the late kick off on August 16. It is games like these that Liverpool need to win to get into contention but historically in recent seasons they have been slow starters.

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